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Thailand-Cambodia Border Crisis: What's Behind the Rising Tensions in 2025?

  • Writer: Siam International News (Admin)
    Siam International News (Admin)
  • Jun 26
  • 10 min read

Updated: Jul 28

The long-standing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has flared up dramatically in 2025, creating one of the most serious diplomatic crises between the two Southeast Asian neighbors in over a decade. What started as routine border tensions has escalated into a complex situation involving military clashes, economic warfare, and high-level political drama that could reshape the region's stability.

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The Spark That Ignited the Crisis

The current crisis began tragically on May 28, 2025, when a firefight broke out between Thai and Cambodian soldiers along their disputed border. The clash resulted in the death of Cambodian Sergeant Suan Roan, a 48-year-old soldier, marking the first military casualty in the ongoing border dispute in years. Both countries immediately blamed each other for starting the confrontation, with Cambodia claiming Thai forces opened fire on a Cambodian army base, while Thailand insisted its soldiers only responded after being attacked first.

This deadly incident occurred in the disputed area between Cambodia's Preah Vihear province and Thailand's Ubon Ratchathani province, a region that has been a source of tension for decades. The area surrounds the ancient Preah Vihear Temple, an 11th-century Hindu temple that sits atop the Dangrek Mountains and has been at the center of territorial disputes since the early 1900s.


The Historical Background: A Century-Old Dispute

To understand the current crisis, we need to look back at the roots of this border dispute. The conflict stems from colonial-era maps drawn by the French while they occupied Cambodia. The International Court of Justice ruled in 1962 that the Preah Vihear Temple belongs to Cambodia, but the exact demarcation of the surrounding land has remained unclear and contested.

The dispute has flared up several times over the decades, most notably between 2008 and 2011 when Cambodia successfully listed the temple as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This move sparked violent protests in Thailand and contributed to political instability that eventually led to the downfall of the government. During that period, military clashes resulted in multiple casualties on both sides and displaced thousands of civilians.

The 508-mile border between the two countries, largely mapped during French colonial rule, has periodically seen military confrontations and has been a persistent source of political tension. The problem is that some sections of the border, particularly around the temple complex, remain unmapped and disputed.


What Makes This Crisis Different?

The 2025 crisis has several unique elements that make it particularly concerning. First, it involves the children of two of Southeast Asia's most influential political figures. Thailand's current Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, while Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet is the son of longtime strongman Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia for nearly four decades before stepping down in 2023.

The relationship between these political dynasties has been complicated. Thaksin and Hun Sen were once close allies, with Hun Sen even appointing Thaksin as Cambodia's economic advisor when he was in exile from Thailand. However, the current generation seems to be taking a more confrontational approach.

The crisis intensified when a leaked phone call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen (Hun Manet's father) became public. In the call, Paetongtarn allegedly made conciliatory remarks about the border dispute, which her political opponents in Thailand used to attack her government as being weak on national sovereignty. This domestic political pressure has made it harder for both leaders to find a peaceful solution.


Economic Warfare Escalates the Conflict

What sets the 2025 crisis apart from previous border disputes is how quickly it has expanded beyond military tensions into economic warfare. Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet announced that his country would halt all fuel and gas imports from Thailand, a move that took effect on June 22, 2025. This is significant because Cambodia relies heavily on Thai energy supplies for its economy.

In response, Thailand has threatened to cut off internet connectivity and some electricity supplies to Cambodia. The Thai government has also partially closed border crossings and restricted crossing times, stranding traders, travelers, and gamblers who are used to easy passage between the two countries. The Thai army specifically closed the Chong Sai Taku border crossing in Buri Ram province, further limiting economic exchange.

These economic measures represent a major escalation because they affect ordinary citizens and businesses on both sides of the border. The moves show how the dispute has evolved from a purely territorial issue into a broader conflict that touches trade, energy security, and regional economic integration.


International Court Involvement

Recognizing the severity of the situation, Cambodia has taken the dispute to the highest international legal authority. The country has delivered a formal letter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) requesting a ruling on the demarcation of disputed border areas with Thailand. This legal move represents Cambodia's attempt to resolve the issue through international law rather than military confrontation.

The ICJ previously ruled on the Preah Vihear Temple in 1962, awarding it to Cambodia, but the court did not clearly define the surrounding territory. Cambodia is now seeking a comprehensive ruling that would settle the border demarcation once and for all. However, international court proceedings can take years to complete, and there's no guarantee that both countries will accept and implement the court's decision.


Current Military Situation

Following the May 28 fatal clash, both countries rushed additional troops to the border area. The military buildup created a tense standoff that lasted for weeks. However, by early June 2025, both sides agreed to return their forces to previous positions in an attempt to de-escalate the situation.

Despite this agreement, the situation remains fragile. Both armies maintain a heightened state of alert along the border, and any small incident could potentially trigger another confrontation. The presence of landmines in some disputed areas adds another layer of danger, as demonstrated by a previous incident where a Thai soldier lost his leg to a Cambodian landmine.


What This Crisis Could Lead To

The Thailand-Cambodia border crisis has several potential outcomes, ranging from peaceful resolution to serious regional instability. Here are the most likely scenarios:

Regional Security Implications: The crisis could undermine the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) principle of non-interference and peaceful dispute resolution. If the conflict escalates further, it might draw in other regional powers and complicate ASEAN's unity and effectiveness.

Economic Disruption: The economic measures already implemented are hurting businesses and communities on both sides of the border. If the trade restrictions continue, they could damage the economic integration that ASEAN has worked decades to build. The energy sector is particularly vulnerable, as Cambodia depends on Thailand for fuel and electricity.

Political Instability: In Thailand, the border crisis has become a domestic political issue that opponents are using to attack Prime Minister Paetongtarn's government. The criticism that she is too soft on Cambodia could weaken her political position and potentially lead to government instability.

Military Escalation: While both sides have agreed to return to previous positions, the underlying territorial dispute remains unresolved. Future incidents could lead to more serious military confrontations, especially if domestic political pressure prevents leaders from making compromises.

Diplomatic Breakdown: The relationship between Thailand and Cambodia, which had been improving in recent years, could suffer long-term damage. This would affect not just bilateral relations but also regional cooperation on issues like trade, security, and environmental protection.


How Long Will This Crisis Last?

Predicting the duration of the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis is challenging because it involves multiple complex factors. Historical precedent suggests that these border disputes can persist for years or even decades without full resolution.

Short-term factors that could help resolve the crisis include international mediation efforts, economic pressure from businesses affected by trade restrictions, and the desire of both governments to avoid further military casualties. The involvement of the International Court of Justice also provides a potential pathway to legal resolution, though this process typically takes years.

Long-term factors that could prolong the crisis include domestic political pressures in both countries, the fundamental disagreement over border demarcation, and the personal relationships between the current leaders. The fact that both prime ministers are dealing with the legacy of their powerful fathers adds another layer of complexity.

Most experts believe the immediate military tensions could be resolved within months through diplomatic negotiations and international pressure. However, the underlying border dispute is likely to remain a source of periodic tensions for years to come, similar to how it has flared up repeatedly since the 1960s.


Pros and Cons of the Current Situation

Potential Positive Outcomes

International Legal Clarity: Cambodia's decision to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice could finally provide clear legal guidance on border demarcation, potentially resolving decades of uncertainty.

ASEAN Involvement: The crisis could prompt greater ASEAN involvement in dispute resolution, strengthening regional mechanisms for handling conflicts between member states.

Modernized Border Management: The current tensions might lead to better border management systems, clearer demarcation processes, and improved communication mechanisms between border forces.

Economic Diversification: The trade restrictions might encourage both countries to diversify their economic relationships and reduce over-dependence on each other for critical supplies.

Diplomatic Learning: The crisis provides both governments with experience in crisis management and could lead to better diplomatic protocols for handling future disputes.


Negative Consequences

Economic Harm: The trade restrictions and border closures are already hurting businesses, workers, and consumers on both sides, with costs likely to increase the longer the crisis continues.

Regional Instability: The crisis undermines ASEAN unity and could encourage other territorial disputes in the region, potentially destabilizing Southeast Asian cooperation.

Human Cost: Border communities that depend on cross-border trade and family connections are suffering the most from the restrictions and tensions.

Military Risks: The presence of armed forces along the border creates ongoing risks of accidental clashes or incidents that could escalate into larger conflicts.

Political Damage: Both prime ministers face domestic political pressure that could weaken their governments and make compromise more difficult.

International Reputation: The crisis damages both countries' international standing and could affect their ability to attract foreign investment and tourism.


The Role of Domestic Politics

One of the most complicating factors in the current crisis is how it has become entangled with domestic politics in both countries. In Thailand, opposition parties are using the border issue to attack Prime Minister Paetongtarn's government, claiming she is too weak in defending Thai sovereignty. The leaked phone call with Hun Sen has been particularly damaging, as it suggests she might be willing to make concessions to Cambodia.

This political pressure makes it much harder for Paetongtarn to negotiate a compromise solution. Any deal that appears to give ground to Cambodia could be used by her opponents to attack her government and potentially force her from office. This dynamic creates a situation where taking a hard line on the border dispute becomes politically necessary, even if it's not in the best interests of resolving the conflict.

Similarly, Cambodia's Hun Manet faces pressure to prove himself as a strong leader following his father's long shadow. Hun Sen ruled Cambodia for 38 years and was known for his tough negotiating style. Hun Manet may feel pressure to show that he can be equally strong in defending Cambodian interests, making compromise more difficult.


Regional and International Response

The international community has been watching the Thailand-Cambodia crisis with growing concern. ASEAN, the regional bloc that both countries belong to, has traditionally followed a policy of non-interference in member states' internal affairs. However, this border dispute affects regional stability and could require more active ASEAN mediation.

The United States, China, and other major powers have interests in maintaining stability in Southeast Asia. Any escalation of the conflict could draw in these larger powers, either through their existing relationships with Thailand and Cambodia or through their broader strategic interests in the region.

The European Union and other international actors are also concerned about the economic implications of the crisis, particularly how it might affect trade routes and economic integration in Southeast Asia. The region is a key part of global supply chains, and instability here could have worldwide economic effects.


Looking Ahead: Possible Solutions

Despite the current tensions, there are several potential pathways to resolving the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis:

International Court Decision: The most comprehensive solution would be a clear ruling from the International Court of Justice that definitively settles the border demarcation. However, this process could take several years and requires both countries to accept and implement the court's decision.

ASEAN Mediation: The regional bloc could play a more active role in mediating between Thailand and Cambodia, potentially providing face-saving solutions for both sides.

Economic Incentives: The business communities in both countries have strong interests in maintaining trade relationships and could pressure their governments to find a resolution.

Track-Two Diplomacy: Unofficial diplomatic channels, including academic exchanges, civil society groups, and business networks, could help build understanding and find creative solutions.

Gradual De-escalation: Both sides could gradually reduce economic restrictions and military tensions while working toward a longer-term solution.


Conclusion

The Thailand-Cambodia border crisis of 2025 represents one of the most serious challenges to Southeast Asian stability in recent years. What began as a tragic military clash has evolved into a complex dispute involving territorial claims, economic warfare, domestic politics, and international law.

The crisis highlights the ongoing challenges of managing colonial-era borders in modern Southeast Asia and shows how historical disputes can suddenly flare up into contemporary conflicts. The involvement of second-generation political leaders adds a new dynamic to these traditional tensions.

While the immediate military situation appears to have stabilized, the underlying issues remain unresolved. The success of efforts to resolve this crisis will depend on the willingness of both governments to prioritize regional stability over domestic political gains, the effectiveness of international mediation efforts, and the ability of both sides to find face-saving compromises.

The stakes are high not just for Thailand and Cambodia, but for the entire Southeast Asian region. How this crisis is resolved will set important precedents for handling future territorial disputes and will test the strength of ASEAN's mechanisms for maintaining regional peace and stability.

As the situation continues to evolve, the international community will be watching closely to see whether diplomacy and international law can prevail over military confrontation and economic warfare. The resolution of this crisis could strengthen regional institutions and provide a model for peaceful dispute resolution, or it could demonstrate the limitations of current approaches to managing territorial conflicts in Southeast Asia.


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